Garrison, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

390
FXUS63 KBIS 180715
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
115 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerous to life threatening wind chills are expected
  Saturday through Tuesday morning, coldest Sunday night through
  Monday morning.

- After the holiday weekend, temperatures are likely to warm
  back to near average by the middle of next week.

- There is a 20 to 30 percent chance of light snow Tuesday night
  through Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 110 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025

Main edit with this update was to modify sky cover based on
latest satellite imagery, observations, and trends. Also added
in flurries across the south and maintained southwest based on
latest web cams and sfc obs. Winds continue to taper off, but
still breezy leading to wind chills as low as 20 below. Much
colder temperatures and wind chills still on the way.

UPDATE
Issued at 1002 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

No major changes are needed with this update. Current
conditions and trends were blended into the forecast.
Visibility restrictions from falling or blowing snow are no
longer being reported. Wind chills have already fallen into the
20 to 25 below range across northern parts of the state. Late
evening winds are mostly in the 20 to 25 mph range, with a few
sites gusting as high as 35 mph. The winds from southwest to
south central North Dakota have remained a little stronger late
this evening than what was previously expected.

UPDATE
Issued at 758 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

The rest of the Winter Weather Advisory has been allowed to
expire on time.

UPDATE
Issued at 624 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

Winds continue to slowly diminish across western and central North
Dakota early this evening. The remaining Wind Advisory has been
ended early. Visibility has also greatly improved across much of the
Winter Weather Advisory. Areas along and west of Highway 83 have
been removed from the Winter Weather Advisory, but areas to the east
will remain in the advisory for the time being as there is a
slightly higher probability for pockets of snow showers and areas of
blowing snow reducing visibility there.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

Current conditions of the snow and blowing snow are slowly
improving. Light snow continues in portions of the north central
and southwest. Blowing snow continues as well in the north
central. Winds have also relaxed below gusts of 45 mph so the
Wind Advisory has been cancelled early. We are keeping the
Winter Weather Advisory for at least a few more hours with the
blowing snow reducing visibilities down to 1 mile or less.
Conditions will improve into the evening as the pressure bubble
behind the front and pressure gradient relaxing.

Tonight the cold Arctic air begins to slide into North Dakota
from Canada. Overnight lows will range from zero in the south to
near 15 below in the north. Temperatures will continue to fall
through the morning with winds around 25 mph. Winds will be
breezy through Tuesday, therefore dangerous wind chills will
exist starting around 6am CT Saturday. These dangerous and life
threatening wind chill conditions will remain in the state
until Tuesday afternoon. An Extreme Cold Warning will be in
effect from Saturday at 6am CT until Tuesday at Noon CT. This is
for all the counties north and east of the Missouri River. West
of the river the very cold wind chills will move in a little
later, and less extreme to start. So a Cold Weather Advisory
will go into effect Saturday 11am MT. This area will eventually
likely need a Warning Sunday night. This is a result of
surface high pressure dropping south into the state and flow
aloft from the north.

After this extreme cold, temperatures look to be back near
average mid-week. The flow will change to a quick moving ridge
Tuesday afternoon that will bring warmer temperatures Wednesday
and Thursday. There are uncertainties in the NBM temperatures
with the timing of this ridge. These temperatures have trended
slightly cooler than the forecast 24 hours ago. Tuesday night
two small low pressures cold move through and bring some slight
chances (20%) for light snow Tuesday and Wednesday.
Temperatures look to stay near average through late next week as
the large trough aloft keeps the very cold temperatures to our
east.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 110 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025

MVFR ceilings persist across parts of the region early this
morning, mainly across southern North Dakota with mainly VFR
conditions north. Another round of MVFR ceilings is likely to
affect all terminals during the day Saturday. Northwest winds
will remain gusty throughout the forecast period, with a bit of
lull this morning.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Cold Warning from 6 AM this morning to noon CST
Tuesday for NDZ001>005-009>013-021>023-025-035>037-046>048-050-
051.
Cold Weather Advisory from noon CST /11 AM MST/ today to noon
CST /11 AM MST/ Tuesday for NDZ017>020-031>034-040>045.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
DISCUSSION...Smith
AVIATION...NH